England’s defence of the World Cup they won four years ago begins in Ahmedabad when they play New Zealand, the team they beat in the 2019 final by the ‘barest of margins’ to become world champions for the first time.
If everyone is fit, they will be able to field seven of the side that played in that groundbreaking match, though many will be relying on muscle memory given the 50-over format is not as ubiquitous as it once was, domestically or internationally.
Take Jos Buttler, England’s captain. Since the last World Cup he has played 27 matches, which is 18 fewer than Virat Kohli (below). Even more strikingly, Joe Root has played just 19 ODIs over the same period as England, who prioritised white-ball cricket in the lead-up to 2019, return their attention to the Test team.
Does their lack of 50-over cricket matter? England will say not. Their aim, as far as I can divine, is to approach this World Cup not as a distinct format but as T20 x 2.5. Listen to Buttler’s rhetoric and it is about all-out attack and cricket without fear or ambiguity – something of a culture clash with tournament favourites India (currently ranked No.1), who are likely to adopt a more cautious, wickets-in-hand approach, especially in front of their billion-strong adoring public.
This is the first time India have hosted the 50-over World Cup on their own (they previously shared the honour with Sri Lanka and Pakistan), an acknowledgment of their place at the top of cricket’s tree.
Power and hubris often go hand in hand and there have been reports of the tournament not being advertised and of online ticket sales being a fiasco. Yet India operates to a different logic, one which argues, ‘Why spend money publicising something that doesn’t need it?’
One thing that is certain is the expectation on their team will be enormous, adding the equivalent of another 25-30 runs to run-chases and another two wickets to opposition line-ups.
Even so, they look the team to beat, having timed their form and strength to perfection, in particular the return to fitness of gun bowler Jasprit Bumrah.
Normally at World Cups three or four teams stand out as likely finalists but this time any combination of India, England, Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand or South Africa could be on that grand stage on November 19.
To get there, a combination of nerve, consistency and that special, game-changing moment in the field is likely to be required. Oh, and a smidgen of luck, especially in the knockout stages, something that aided England in 2019 when a throw from the outfield in the final struck Ben Stokes’ bat and ricocheted for four.
That slice of fortune enabled England to tie the match at Lord’s which then went to a super over, itself tied on 15 runs apiece.
England won by virtue of having struck more boundaries in the match, a decider that has been removed this time round in favour of further super overs, which have been extended to all matches and not just the knockout stage.
Otherwise the format is the same as four years ago: ten teams each playing the other once with the top four making up the semi-finalists.
Pitches, which will be overseen by the ICC’s head groundsman Andy Atkinson, should be batting paradises which means the main point of difference among teams will be the bowling.
Spin tends to dominate in India but maybe not as much now that the home side cannot influence playing surfaces.
With most games day-night affairs, dew could also be a factor in limiting the effectiveness of spin at least for those teams bowling second, a greasy ball lacking grip off the pitch as well as in the bowler’s hand.
England have an excellent chance of making it two in two, though their bowling does not appear as strong for the conditions as their batting, which runs deep.
Their trio of left-arm pacemen, Sam Curran, Reece Topley and David Willey fit the brief according to analysts of the Indian Premier League, who reckon left-arm pace bowlers outperform their right-arm equivalents, but they need the ball to swing to be properly effective and that is not a given.
Buttler’s team possess serious 90mph pace in the form of Mark Wood and rookie Gus Atkinson, and also have great experience from Chris Woakes, who like Curran and spinner Moeen Ali, has played several seasons in the IPL.
With England playing their nine group matches at eight different venues, every ounce of that collective knowledge will be needed as they traverse an area as large as Gibraltar to John O’Groats and Bangor to Berlin, with all the variety that brings.
Moeen, along with Adil Rashid, Liam Livingstone and Root, will form England’s spin attack. In the build-up to this tournament Eoin Morgan, England’s triumphant captain in 2019, said Rashid would be England’s key bowler.
His 50-over record in India, three wickets at 87 from four matches with a economy rate of 7.7, suggests otherwise but all those matches were against the home side whose batsmen are not as easily impressed by wrist-spinners as some of the other teams here. So he could yet be England’s kingmaker.
Two Test-playing countries are absent, West Indies and Ireland, their places taken by Netherlands and Sri Lanka following their success in the pre-tournament qualifier. Afghanistan play because they finished in the top eight of the ODI rankings. All have it in them to cause the odd upset.
India remain the bookies’ favourite but many fancy South Africa who have a good, varied bowling attack and some big- hitting batsmen, Heinrich Klaasen chief among them. Yet their reputation as chokers continues to dog them, the team having reached four semi-finals but never a final.
Personally, I always watch out for New Zealand and Pakistan at World Cups, two teams who tend to over-perform at tournaments, though for different reasons. England play them first and last in the group stage, and on those two results could their prospects of retaining the trophy lie.
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